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The year 2022 will be remembered for many reasons: the year in which Russia waged war against Ukraine, Britain lost its longest-serving monarch and the world’s population neared the eight billion mark.
As we near this milestone, China recently carried out a survey that showed that few Chinese parents want three children, nearly one-and-a-half years after the government introduced a three-child policy to boost the dwindling fertility rate. Of the 23,323 respondents in the survey, more than 80 per cent said that they wished to have one or more kids, with most wanting two.
As China hesitates to move towards the three-child policy, which was introduced in August 2021, we take a look at how the changing attitude of the Asian giant towards childbirths.
‘Hum do, humare teen’
In August 2021, Beijing formally revised its laws to allow couples to have up to three children. The move was taken keeping in mind the country’s declining birth rate.
China also announced the cancelling the “social maintenance fee” — a financial penalty couples have to pay for having children beyond the limit, encouraging local governments to offer parental leave, increasing women’s employment rights; and improving childcare infrastructure.
The move came as China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that mothers had given birth to 12 million babies in 2020, down from 14.65 million in 2019, marking an 18 per cent decline. This represented the fourth consecutive drop in the annual birth rate.
China’s declining child births. Graphic: Pranay Bhardwaj
China’s fertility rate was 1.3 children per woman — below the replacement level of 2.1 needed for a stable population. The NBS data revealed that the annual growth rate was 0.53 per cent for the period from 2010 to 2020, the slowest of any decade since China’s first census in 1953. It was down by 0.04 percentage points compared with the average growth rate of 0.57 per cent from 2000 to 2010.
China’s population make-up in recent times has been worrying for the authorities: At the end of 2021, China’s working age population — from 16 to 59 — made up 62.5 per cent of the population. This was a drop from the 63.5 per cent in 2020 and 74.53 in 2010.
On the other hand, China’s aged population was rising; it had 267.36 million people aged over 60 at the end of 2021 — 18.9 per cent of the population. This was an increase from 264.02 million in 2020.
What this data reveals is that China’s working population is decreasing while its number of senior citizens is rising, which could affect the country’s economy.
Also read: India’s population growth: Is it boon or bane?
However, China’s shift to the three-child policy wasn’t welcomed by all. In fact, experts had stated that just relaxing limits on reproductive rights could not avert demographic shift. They had cited that rising costs of living, education and the country’s culture of long working hours was the reason why fewer children were being born and until measures weren’t brought in, there would be no change in the numbers.
These feelings still hold true with even the most recent survey showing that people were averse to having three children owing to the heavy economic burden of child rearing, insufficient time and energy and work pressure being the main obstacles to having children.
At the end of 2021, China reported 267.36 million people aged over 60 — 18.9 per cent of the population. This was an increase from 264.02 million in 2020. File image/AP
China’s one-child policy
The three-child policy was a stark departure from China’s one-child policy, which had been put in place since 1980. It was introduced by Deng Xiaoping and was strictly enforced after the population had increased to 969 million in 1980 from around 540 million in 1949.
The policy restricted couples from having more than a single child, and those who were found violating it had to pay fines and the National Health and Family Planning Commission also forced abortions in some cases. As per the one-child policy, civil servants and government employees could lose their job for violating the rule.
As per reports, if the violating parents didn’t pay the fine, the second child wouldn’t be registered — in effect making them not exist legally and restricting their access to health care and education.
For a while, the policy was considered a success at least in terms of population goals. As TIME’s Hannah Beech wrote in 2013: “The family-planning program, coupled with market reforms launched around the same time, is credited with catalysing China’s modern transformation. With fewer bellies to feed, the government turned a hand-to-mouth society into the world’s second largest economy. Although many families, especially those in the countryside, are exempted from the one-child maximum, Chinese women bear, on average, about 1.5 children, compared with about six in the late 1960s.”
However, the policy had far-reaching effects, beyond just population control. The country’s overall sex ratio became skewed toward males, as more parents opted for boys owing to a centuries-old preference.
China’s one-child policy had far-reaching effects. The country’s overall sex ratio became skewed toward males. File image/AFP
Another worrying consequence of the policy was the growing proportion of elderly people. This became a concern, as the great majority of senior citizens in China relied on their children for support after they retired, and there were fewer children to support them.
Another concern that arose from the one-child policy was that several children landed up not being registered as parents’ feared action from the government. Those children faced hardships in obtaining education and employment. Although the number of such children is not known, estimates have ranged from the hundreds of thousands to several million.
It was only in 2016 that China moved away from the one-child policy, allowing all married couples to have a second child as it attempted to cope with an ageing population and shrinking workforce.
A further drop in 2023
Despite encouraging people to have more children — including paying people — the population will see a decline in 2023. According to a report by the United Nations titled “World Population Prospects 2022”, China is set to lose its title as the world’s most populous nation by 2023, with India set to take over.
The report said that China is expected to experience a population decline which will see its total go from 1.426 billion currently to 1.317 billion by 2050.
These numbers might get even more affected as The Dragon battles an unprecedented COVID wave, seeing a massive number of deaths each day. Some projections have said that up to one million people in China could die from COVID-19 over the next few months.
A UK-based health data firm Airfinity, according to Reuters, said that China was witnessing around 9,000 COVID-19 deaths daily, adding that the deaths will peak in January — around 25,000 a day.
It is unknown what exactly the figures are, but China is struggling and that will have an effect on the population numbers.
With inputs from agencies
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