Imran Khan’s assassination bid pushes Pakistan on the edge of a precipice: Will it descend into chaos?

Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan. PTI

On 7 November, Pakistan’s respected and sober newspaper Dawn began its editorial — evocatively entitled “Democrats, dictators & demagogues” — thus: “The system is imploding, spectacularly — collapsing under the weight of the multiple distortions created by decades of political engineering, not to mention outright military takeovers.” It went on to add: “No one seems to know how it will all end.” Concluding that “Pakistan stands on the edge of a precipice”, it expressed what can only be called a fond hope, “that all parties engaged in this conflagration” would “rein in their worst impulses”.

However, as yet, no party to Pakistan’s current “conflagration” — the army or government or former Prime Minister and Chairman Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) Imran Khan — has shown any real inclination to effectively navigate the country through this current crisis. Behind-the-scene talks would be taking place between them; they always do in Pakistan but they are obviously not making headway for PTI demonstrations are taking place through the country and the party’s Long March is set to resume from 10 November. Thus, for the present Pakistan is exhibiting all characteristics of a truly Hobbesian situation: “All are against all.”

The grave political and institutional crisis began in March this year following the breakdown of relations between Imran Khan and Army chief General Qamar Bajwa led to the former’s ouster from the prime minister’s chair. A PDM government led by Shahbaz Sharif came in but Khan went to the people protesting against a conspiracy to put in place an “imported” government. He implicated the Army in the conspiracy which then and all through has maintained that it is now “apolitical”. Eight months of political confusion and vexations were compounded by the disqualification of Khan from Pakistan’s National Assembly by the country’s Election Commission on corruption charges.

The continuing political crisis got fully inflamed with the attack on Khan’s container at Wazirabad on 3 November while he was leading the PTI’s Long March to Islamabad; he received bullet injuries on his leg. Other PTI leaders were injured and one person died. Shehbaz Sharif and the army condemned the attack. The alleged perpetrator was caught on the spot and claimed that he had acted alone and his intention was to kill only Khan because of religious reasons. Instead of reacting to the attack in a sober way the Hobbesian instincts of Pakistan’s political class, especially of Khan, have now emerged in full vigour since 3 November. Consider the following:

• On 3 November itself, Khan, from his hospital bed in Lahore, blamed Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah and Director, Counter-Intelligence in the ISI Major General Faisal Naseer for the attack. Police on Tuesday registered an FIR against one person after the Supreme Court on Monday ordered the Punjab government to do so within 24 hours. The FIR named the assailant, Naveed Mohammad Basheer, as the prime accused. By doing that, the police have followed the court order. However, it does not mention the names of Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah and a senior Pakistan Army official Major General Faisal Naseer.
• It is no ordinary matter to accuse a PM and an Interior Minister of conspiring to kill a political leader. If the Chief Minister of the province, Pervez Elahi, is reluctant to register an FIR against them, it is understandable. But Elahi’s bigger problem is that Faisal Naseer has been named and the Army is furious at this. The Director-General of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement on 4 November. It stated, “The baseless and irresponsible allegations by Chairman PTI against the institution and particularly a senior officer are absolutely unacceptable and uncalled for.” The statement added, “The Pakistan army prides itself for being an extremely professional and well-disciplined organisation.” This was as clear a warning as possible against civilian meddling in taking a senior Army to a civilian court for the statement emphasised that the army has internal mechanisms of accountability. No wonder Elahi hesitated. Meanwhile, the head of the Punjab province police, Faisal Shahkar, formally requested the federal government to relieve him of his responsibility and recall him to Islamabad.
• On 6 November, Khan announced that the Long March to Islamabad would resume on 8 November. It would take 11 to 14 days to reach Rawalpindi where he would join it. Now its resumption has been postponed till the 10^th. Clearly, Khan has been warned by the army that he is taking Pakistan to, as the Dawn editorial notes “the edge of the precipice” and should think again. It would not at all be surprising if the Army is bringing pressure to bear — and it has enormous capacity to do so — on other PTI leaders. As of now Khan is not relenting because he feels that the people are with him.
• Meanwhile Khan is dragging President Arif Alvi into the political crisis by complaining against the army and the ISI. Constitutionally, Alvi can do nothing. He is a dentist and may be good at extracting teeth but is a political lightweight and simply does not have the capacity to extract the country from the present quagmire. He also does not have the stature to get all the army, the government and the PTI together to hammer a compromise.

Amidst all this, three weeks remain to current army chief General Qamar Bajwa’s extended term. He has emphasised that he will retire on the due date, 29 November. Sharif has the prerogative to appoint Bajwa’s successor from a list of eligible generals sent by the Army to him. The delay in the appointment is causing uncertainties. It is no secret that Khan also wants to play a role in the appointment of the new Army chief, but it is unlikely that a concession will be made by either Sharif or Bajwa on this point. There is no doubt that the army would not like widespread unrest to take place for that would put the force against, at least, a section of the people. If the situation worsens it could also lead to the declaration of martial law in some parts of the country.

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The next few days are precarious for Pakistan, but the delay in renewing the Long March could be an indication, though small and tenuous, that some pulling back from the precipice is underway. One way out would be for a new Army chief to be appointed and the PDM agreeing to bring the elections which are slated for the end of next year forward to spring or early summer. But in the Hobbesian world to which Pakistan has currently descended compromises are not impossible but very difficult to achieve.

A final word: In past crises the US and the Saudis have quietly intervened to settle matters. The former is unlikely to do so because of Imran Khan’s fulminations but the latter may and so may the Chinese, though in the past they have not done so. No one wants a country of 220 million people with nuclear weapons to descend into chaos.

The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed are personal.

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