Trump’s 2024 bid: Divider-in-chief still has two more years to plot his return

It’s always good to be underestimated – Donald J Trump

Divide, disrupt and dislodge are the driving forces behind the Donald J Trump juggernaut. To underestimate his 2024 presidential bid considering the occasional bumps, like the transitory Midterm jolt, could be extremely dangerous for his rivals in general and the Democratic Party in particular.

Undeniably, the American political landscape has drastically altered since Trump’s ignominious exit from the White House and he doesn’t have a 100% chance of romping home again. But election predictions have often been wrong.

Considering the unpredictability of election results, Trump’s third presidential gamble could swing either way. The odds are 50:50 depending upon the economic, political and military status of the US in the next two years and if he overcomes his troubles.

Trump’s lies still enthuse his support base

The disruptor-in-chief’s concoction of lies, playing the victim card, the false narrative of an outsider fighting the elites and the MAGA slogan still make the Republican grassroots high.

America is a “nation in decline”, gradually turning into a dystopian state and on the verge of nuclear war under President Joe Biden, and Trump is the Redeemer. That was the underlying tone of his speech, peppered with lines from his playbook of falsehoods.

“America’s comeback starts right now. I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,” the former realty tycoon said in the ballroom of his Mar-a-Lago resort, in Florida, on Tuesday, as he gave the battle cry to pull off a Grover Cleveland.



The former president presented his reign of disruption, turbulence and the flouting of laws and traditions as a “golden age” when the US was at the ‘peak’ of prosperity and dominance. He portrayed himself as a “victim” of a ‘deep state’ that launched ‘politicised’ criminal investigations, unleashed the FBI against him and ‘robbed’ him of his second presidency.

While exhorting his supporters, Trump cleverly omitted the Capitol insurrection, his abysmal failure in dealing with the pandemic and the two impeachments. He didn’t repeat the false ‘stolen’ election theory either following the Midterm defeat of several GOP candidates who had embraced his poll denialism.

Trump’s lies, misinformation and disinformation get more ludicrous by the hour. For example, he blamed the Biden administration for leaving military equipment worth $85 billion during the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal. Actually, the department of defence had estimated the value at about $7.1 billion. Besides, $83 billion, not $85 billion, was the total amount sanctioned by the Congress to support the Afghan security forces.

Trying to defend his unconstitutional act of taking away classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he lied that his predecessor “[Barack] Obama took a lot of things with him”, a claim denied by the National Archives and Records Administration. 

CNN’s fact-checker Daniel Dale busted 20 lies and misleading claims in Trump’s speech, including on immigration, the Mexico border wall, illegal immigration, wars, the Islamic State, terrorism, the US military’s use of old bombers, and inflation.

However, the same false claims, especially the election denial, are true for the GOP grassroots. Their small contributions of less than $200 each to Trump’s Save America PAC added up to $9 million in the first quarter of 2022, according to a filing with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). In contrast, donations by contributors who gave $500 or more added up to only $1.8 million.

Trump’s PAC, created on 9 November, 2020, to fund his political operation, has a war chest of more than $100 million. He has even spent more than $8.5 million of that contribution on legal expenses since January 2021. The PAC spent more than $3.8 million on legal fees in August following the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago raid, the FEC filing shows.

Trump’s dual image of a macho outsider and a victim of the establishment resonates with his core base. November 8 election candidates endorsed Trump’s “Stop the Steal” lie fearing antagonising his supporters, who play a critical role in elections.

Republicans are aware of Trump’s cult following. “If Trump runs, I’m 99 per cent sure he’ll have the nomination,” Neil Shaffer, chair of the Howard county Republican party, Iowa, told The Guardian.

Shaffer wants Florida Republican governor Ron DeSantis, who won the Florida re-election in the Midterms with a smashing margin and could be Trump’s main challenger. But she doubts whether Trump could be beaten. “I know how caucuses and primaries work. You don’t have to have that many people show up and he has a very loyal and dedicated following.”

Trump continues to dominate a divided GOP

The former president’s vice-like grip on a divided Republican Party remains. He could be the party’s nominee in 2024 unless someone better than DeSantis or of the same calibre challenges him. DeSantis is being seen as the only challenger with no other Republican leader emerging to take on Trump’s personality cult.

A divided Republican party, especially after Trump’s 2020 loss, the Capitol attack and the recent Midterms shocker, could work to his advantage. When the party is rudderless and dejected, he emerges as the uniting force.

After the Midterm upset, the GOP should have agreed to prop up DeSantis as its 2024 face but it is still riven and undecided.

Endorsing Trump’s candidacy even before his official endorsement, Georgia representative Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted, “We will Make America Great Again!” with her previous statement “President Trump has my full endorsement and my support as our Republican nominee in 2024” below.

“President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party.  Let’s Make America Great Again,” tweeted Arizona representative Andy Biggs.

While South Caroline senator Lindsey Graham didn’t outrightly support Trump, he said that his speech “contrasting his policies and results” against Biden will surely help him win the primaries and the election and he will “be hard to beat”.

On the other hand, several other Republicans rejected Trump’s candidacy. “Since 2016, Republicans have done nothing but lose, and Republican voters are paying the price for it … It is time to turn the page,” retiring Maryland governor Larry Hogan tweeted.

Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, who too is retiring and has been critical of Trump, said that his “self-indulging message promoting anger … didn’t work in 2022 and won’t work in 2024”.

Even Trump’s secretary of state Mike Pompeo, who could join the 2024 race, slammed him indirectly for being noisy, non-serious and “staring in the rear-view mirror claiming victimhood”.

Missouri junior senator Josh Hawley, who had raised his fist in support before rioters stormed the Capitol, said that Midterms were the “funeral for the Republican Party”.

Trump faces challenge of waning popularity

Now, for the 50 per cent chance of Trump either not winning the nomination or the election or both. Recent polls show his waning popularity, including in key states—but he beat all odds to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

His core base is definitely strong but issues like the abortion ban, the haunting images of the Capital riot and Biden raising the spectre of threat to democracy in a GOP-controlled Senate and House influenced swing voters to choose the Dems.

A poll conducted by Morning Consult, a global decision intelligence company, from November 2-7 found that 48 per cent of potential Republican primary voters would back Trump as against 57 per cent in August, 52 per cent in September and 49% in October.

According to November NBC News poll, around 62 per cent of Republicans identify themselves more as GOP supporters than as backers of Trump as against 50 per cent in August.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted among 5,098 adults from October 10-16 found that 60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents feel ‘warmly’ towards Trump, including 41% who feel ‘very warmly’.

The respondents were asked to rate Trump on a ‘feeling thermometer’ representing 100 as the warmest (most positive rating) and 0 the coldest (most negative)—25% of Republicans expressed cold or very cold feelings compared to 20% in 2021.

A July poll of 350 respondents who want to vote in the 2024 Republican primaries conducted by The New York Times/Siena College from July 5-7 showed that around 50 per cent of the GOP’s primary voters don’t want Trump as nominee. And, 64 per cent of voters under 35 years and 65 per cent of those with, at least, would vote against him in a primary.

Trump lagged Biden 44 per cent to 41 per cent in a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 battle despite the president’s tanking popularity (from 45% approval rating in January to 37% in November) .

In fact, American conservative magazine National Review carried an op-ed titled “No”.

DeSantis could be Trump’s main hurdle  

DeSantis, considered a saner version of Trump, is gradually becoming popular with the Morning Consult poll showing his rising popularity—18% in August, 19% in September, 24% in October and 26% in November. Besides, 60% of suburban GOP voters support him.

According to a YouGov exit poll, 41% of Republicans prefer DeSantis as the nominee compared to 39% for Trump. In an October ABC News/Ipsos survey, 72% of registered Republicans said that DeSantis should have a greater influence in the party’s direction as against 64% for Trump.

Besides, an increasing number of Republican megadonors are supporting DeSantis and other possible contestants and abandoning Trump.

New York-based businessman Andy Sabin, who donated $55,000 to Friends of Ron DeSantis, a pro-DeSantis PAC, told CNBC that he’s not “going to give (Trump) a f—ing nickel”.  “At the end of the day, people stayed away because of Trump,” he said blaming the former president for the GOP’s poor Midterm performance.

Sabin is not alone. Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, who donated more than $100 million in the Midterms, recently said that he would back DeSantis as president. Criticising Trump, he told POLITICO, “And for a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation.”

In an essay emailed to GOP allies, attorney and Republican fundraiser Eric Levine wrote that there are several Republicans, including DeSantis, Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin, Pompeo, former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley and former vice-president Mike Pence, who could be the nominee.

“I will work very hard with like-minded Republicans to make sure he [Trump] is not our nominee in 2024 because I want to win! Embracing Trump is not a winning a strategy,” Levine added.

Trump involved in more than 12 legal battles

 

Trump’s litany of legal woes range from storing the classified documents and the Capitol violence to trying to overturn the 2020 election and the criminal tax fraud trial against Trump Organization—to name a few of more than 12 cases.

During the August FBI raid, 11,000 documents, including around 100 classified with some marked ‘top secret’, were seized. The department of justice (DoJ) could file charges against Trump after its investigation.

A House select committee comprising seven Democrats and two Republicans is probing the Capitol attack and has found shocking evidence of Trump’s actions before and on January 6. He is locked with the committee in a legal battle over complying with a subpoena for documents and his testimony. If he refuses, the matter could be referred to the DoJ, which can result in criminal proceedings.

A leaked phone call in which Trump asked Georgia’s Republican secretary of state Brad Raffensperger to “find” 11,780 votes to overturn the results in the swing state in 2020 is being probed by a special grand jury.

“The allegations are very serious. If indicted and convicted, people are facing prison sentences,” Fulton County, Georgia, district attorney Fani Willis, who is overseeing the jury, recently told The Washington Post.

The DoJ is also looking into fake certificates created by Trump allies in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Mexico to replace valid presidential electors.

Trump Organization faces a civil investigation and a criminal probe in New York. State attorney general Letitia James, who is heading the civil investigation, filed a fraud lawsuit in September against the company. The lawsuit alleges that the company overstated the value of its real estate to get more favourable loans and better tax rates between 20011 and 2021. And, Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg is looking into the criminal probe.

Despite these obstacles, Trump can’t be dismissed or ignored for he has rewritten or broken laws and traditions and polarised Americans. Trumpism has entrenched itself in American politics.

The writer is a freelance journalist with two decades of experience, and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed are personal.

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